• Joining us now is Cathy Jones, chief, Fairfeex.inkum strategists are shrubsend of a financial research. Thanks so much for joining us for this Monday, Cathy. So, obviously, we're tracking these developments around the potential for this end to the government shutdown. What are you seeing as funds are action in fixing come today?
    speaker1
  • Kathy Jones
    We're starting to see yields move up a little bit because, you know, ending the shutdown means you pick up an economic activity. Some of the things that haven't been available to do will now be available to do. And such as flying, you know, without having to worry too much over the Thanksgiving holiday. So, I think that also gets workers back to work and gets their paychecks flowing again. So, the prospect is for a little bit of a pop and growth that might not have other ways of Kurds. So, I'm starting to see yield move up a little bit.
  • right. So I'm just looking at the 10 year, the benchmark at 410 right now. It seemed to be a bit of a push and pull scenario last week. I mean, all in all weekly performance, it kind of feels like we're unchanged here, but we saw everything from 4 away to 4 16 last week with respect to, you know, that tug of war between the good data, the bad data, the rubbish comments, the hawkish comments. So what do you think is next now? Where do we go from here? And particularly if we do get the end to the government shutdown, and we start to get this deluge. We have the official data.
    speaker1
  • Kathy Jones
    Yeah, I think we'll have to take the early data points for the bit of a grain of salt because they haven't been out gathering the data. And if they rushed to sort of pull it together and then in complete fashion, they'll have to be a little bit cautious about what it means. But I do think the market is going to be in this push pull scenario for a while until you get some clear cut indication either that inflation is going to come down and that opens the door to some more fed rain cuts and it eases some of the. The upward pressure at the long end of the curve. or it's not coming down and you know job growth maybe firms up a little bit. and that means if that's unhalled longer, we're in the campuses that... We don't expect the rate cut in December. We think the decision... on where to go on rates will be pushed into the first border when the Fed gets more data. And again, because inflation is sticking near that 3% area, I think most of the folks the Fed want to be confident it's going to come down. before initiating for the rad cuts.
  • Okay, so they're perhaps a likely as far as you're concerned and the team over there to sit on their hands, come December. Maybe just in run enough information before that decision for us. And particularly if we get the shutdown this week, and we start to get some data subsequently after that. Let's see, let's see what happens. I mean, the markets seem to be... still looking towards that December cutter, but you know they might have to wait and take an approach. We're also you seeing. opportunity here in credit markets right now.
    speaker1
  • Kathy Jones
    Yeah, credit markets in our spreads are very tight. The yield you get versus treasuries in the investment grade and in the high yield markets pretty small pretty low. And so with those spreads very tight, we still think the fund of metal for the investment grade part of the market are very good. And that's an opportunity with yields where they are. to continue to lock in some of that income flow. for the next say 5 to 10 years. So we like it or media term. We like. tips because we think that they're priced in such a way that you can get a positive real return likely over time. So for people concerned about inflation, I think tips make a lot of sense. More inch-backed securities. Those look good. Thank you. essentially the same government backing as treasuries with the higher yield. So that's an area to consider as well for a pickup and yield. And then one of our favorites continues to be municipal bonds, especially for people on high. tax states and high tax brackets, those tax equivalent yields are very attractive and the credit quality. is very high, generally speaking, in the investment grade, moving market.
  • Alright, Cathy Jones always appreciate it. Thank you so much for joining me this on this Monday. Chief fixing comes strategist at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, joining me there.
    speaker1
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