Asks how the January jobs report fits into Yardeni's 'Galloping Horse' thesis of a stimulative 2026.
Katie Greifeld
Ed Yardeni
The jobs report is very good news. The labor market might surprise to the upside, with a run rate closer to 100k/month vs. expected 50k. Fiscal policy (larger tax refunds, large deficits) and monetary policy (175 bps of cuts) are stimulative and will boost the economy.
Asks about the reliability of jobs data given large downward revisions for 2025.
Scarlett Fu
Ed Yardeni
The preliminary jobs numbers are 'pretty close to useless' due to large benchmark revisions. The underlying picture is of a labor market where hiring has slowed to replacement level, but strong GDP growth implies booming productivity, which benefits workers via real wage growth.
Asks about the day's price action, noting stocks faded gains but bond yields held their spike.
Katie Greifeld
Ed Yardeni
The bond market has been remarkably quiet despite global commotion. Investors who made money in stocks are rebalancing into bonds and gold. This explains why stocks can rise without yields rising and gold continues higher.
Asks how much more rebalancing into gold is needed.
Scarlett Fu
Ed Yardeni
Rebalancing will go on for a while, depending on stock market performance. His optimistic base case (no recession, S&P 500 at 10,000 by end of decade) would lead to continued rebalancing into bonds and gold, pushing gold to $10,000/oz.