We've absorbed multiple shocks just in the last few months. Markets are up, markets are down - real risk of being whipsawed. We have to focus on looking through the noise.

We entered the year constructive on global growth, pro-risk. Made adjustments since the war: more focused on resilience, quality, defensiveness, but also looking for opportunities.

One change: trimmed regional equity exposure in Europe, added to US. Concerns over energy - Europe more reliant. Even if war ends tomorrow, we look at earnings revisions and growth. US delivering resilient earnings, more consistent revisions, stronger macro backdrop, more insulated from shocks.

US exceptionalism is back - or did it ever go away?

From equity standpoint, yes US exceptionalism. Fixed income more nuanced. Credit picture: trimmed credit, moved to shorter duration. Spreads at historic heights, didn't see pickup in yield to compensate.

If persistent longer, some areas more affected. Sectoral dispersions - winners, losers, opportunities.

Today looks like ceasefire, stocks reacting, but if persistent...

Critical thing persisting regardless if conflict ends: supply chain. Energy, raw materials, infrastructure fortification. Middle East conflict highlighted what should have been in play during pandemic.

AI and supply chains around that - don't see reversing. Looking at opportunities amid noise/short-term disruptions. Focus on what could persist medium/long term.

Everything associated with critical needs of AI, robotics, supply chains, energy infrastructure - doing work thematically, advising clients, where we see opportunities.