If the Groman plan (reshoring/re-industrializing) is dead, then for me: cash, T-Bills, more gold, wait for Bitcoin to go lower before adding that back.

Every day this war drags on, the greater the risk this becomes of it being a US Suez moment. That is absolutely 100% not priced in markets.

Foreigners have borrowed ~$13-14T offshore in USD debt. They own $70T gross in US dollar assets. Anytime the dollar goes up too much or oil goes up too much, they will sell dollar assets until either the dollar/oil go down or until US markets are a smoking crater.

Europe probably is the biggest loser in all this. But do not ignore that Europe owns trillions in US treasuries and equities. They will sell those to pay for food and energy.

If jobs continue to be lost to AI and unemployment hits 10%+, home prices probably couldn't continue to increase until they have to print more money or start handing out UBI.

Only equities I really like are those with very strong fundamental industry tailwinds: electrical infrastructure, some industrials, gold miners.

Until the war ends, even areas with good fundamental backgrounds are probably just likely to lose less money than make money on an absolute basis.

The energy guys probably have very good fundamentals as well. XOP type names, oil E&P names.