States he is 'cautiously optimistic' as it's the first time all three sides (US, Iran, Israel) are pausing. The market is right to price in a pause and Strait reopening, but the situation remains fragile and whipsawing.

Highlights challenging negotiations ahead, particularly on Iranian demands like ending sanctions.

Points to the US dollar as a useful gauge, noting it appreciated on stress/liquidity demand and depreciated on the ceasefire news.

Argues the market is pricing multiple scenarios and is rational in expecting actors to negotiate a way out due to survival and election incentives. The rational outcome is for the US to claim victory and exit.

Cites history of geopolitical tensions having short-lived market impacts.

Says the Fed is right to be patient and wait-and-see. Raises the view that raising rates may be an overreaction if the situation cools, and central banks may have a responsibility to protect growth over addressing inflation.

Notes policy lags and that developed economies lack fiscal space to help with inflation.

Suggests potential long-term themes: new energy risk premium, diversification of energy sourcing (to US, renewables), and increased allied defense spending focusing on cost-effective threats (like cheap drones).

Believes investors may still see this as a blip. Tech-driven earnings seem resilient and may not see significant downgrades if a sustained ceasefire holds.

Acknowledges energy market disruptions could be more prolonged.

Says the market primarily wants containment of US-China friction; continued negotiation without escalation is the key, with any trade deals being a bonus.

Advises continuing to look for quality and liquidity, staying invested in equities (US, North Asia tech) and income-generating fixed income. Sees an opportunity to add to cheap tech stocks like Nvidia.

Notes the fear in tech is overinvestment, not macro fundamentals.