Markets recovering from yesterday's drop, Nasdaq led by Micron, Microsoft, Nvidia; asks about Fed expectations for December
Host
Torsten Slok
Fed unlikely to cut rates in December as inflation remains around 3% and majority of FOMC members signal they're not done fighting inflation
Questions whether inflation expectations being under control and weakening labor market should provide comfort for cuts
Host
Torsten Slok
Labor market data complexities due to Thanksgiving timing and October data gap create uncertainty about true labor market health
Torsten Slok
AI job impact narrative overblown - unemployment rate for young female college graduates declining while male rate rising
Asks about Chinese exports shifting to Asian markets and implications for supply chains
Host
Torsten Slok
China successfully redirected exports to other Asian countries as US exports declined, maintaining strong export performance
Notes Nasdaq recovery and asks when AI benefits will show in broader market data beyond Magnificent Seven
Host
Torsten Slok
AI benefits need to spread to S&P 493 companies - currently earnings and profit margins up for Magnificent Seven but down for rest
Torsten Slok
Expects economic rebound in 2025 with 'one big beautiful bill' adding nearly 1% to GDP growth via accelerated depreciation
Torsten Slok
Multiple tailwinds building for US economy including fiscal policy, easier financial conditions, trade war resolution
Torsten Slok
Inflation pressure likely to emerge in services sector due to rising input costs over past six months