That situation would take some risk premium out but wouldn't fix the physical challenge. The physical market is already too tight and will keep getting tighter unless the strait reopens with a US declaration that the war is over.

Without both conditions, you'll start running through SPRs and other mitigation, which will continue to put upward pressure. The real challenge may be on refining margins, which are already at record levels.

Confirms the refined products situation for Europe, with last cargoes arriving in next couple of days. For crude oil to Asia, last cargoes will arrive in 7-10 days. After that, drawing down on stocks begins.

There's a decent cushion that can handle another month. OPEC has a couple hundred million barrels outside Middle East available and is already using them. SPRs around the world will help, but mitigation items are not enough. Need 4-5 million barrels/day of refining run cuts to rebalance, but that would create even greater shortages of finished fuels like jet fuel.

Production shut in (around 12 million barrels/day) can come back quickly within a couple of weeks if not damaged. Oil on tankers could be made available immediately when transit resumes.

However, transit time is 4-6 weeks, so barrels take that long to show up at refineries. Refining recovery is tougher - run cuts from storage management are about 3 million barrels/day globally (mostly Asia), and damage is another 3-4 million barrels/day (mostly Middle East), which will take much more time to restore.