Oil market seems too calm - Brent 111, WTI 115.
Haslinda Amin
Vandana Hari
Not calm but indecisive - deer in headlights syndrome with 24 hours to Trump ultimatum.
US and Iran demands fundamentally divergent - no meeting point, it's a canyon.
State of supplies - how acute, how tight?
Haslinda Amin
Vandana Hari
Half of pre-war supplies (10M bpd vs 19M) locked out; refined products even sharper cutback to less than 2M bpd from 5-6M.
All bypasses already found; vast majority of shut-in crude has no way to market unless Hormuz reopens.
What's fundamentally changed in energy market?
Haslinda Amin
Vandana Hari
Entering completely new era of geopolitical conflicts threatening global oil supplies at unprecedented scale.
Iran has new weapon of shutting down Hormuz; market must contemplate this reality for months/years.