The move in rates (rally at belly, curve steepening) is consistent with expectations. Rates and oil are asset classes that haven't fully repriced the conflict. We are long rates.

Given the K-shaped nature of the U.S. economy, the top-income cohort can weather the oil price uptick, but we're worried about the bottom part. Our economists call for two more cuts this year. We like being long front-end belly and like curve steepeners.

It's a question about Treasury supply/demand balance. Deficit risks have gone up. We are more worried about the back end of the curve.

We were hopeful Treasury would signal reducing auction sizes given the better deficit picture, but it doesn't seem to be on their agenda. The question now is when Treasury will grow auction sizes, a focus for the May refunding.