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Asks about tools beyond SPR to mitigate oil price impacts from war, noting oil at $100/barrel.

Brian

Treasury Secretary

Response depends on conflict duration; goal is to degrade/destroy Iranian military capabilities and projection of power.

Raises risk that despite leadership decapitation, wealthy IRGC bosses could still disrupt shipping with missile attacks.

Brian

Treasury Secretary

Claims to know exactly who they're fighting; describes Iranian regime as panicked, incoherent, and possibly with incapacitated leadership.

Notes shipping traffic collapse in critical Strait, impacting oil, gas, fertilizers, helium, semiconductors.

Brian

Treasury Secretary

Sees more fuel ships starting to go through; Iranians letting ships out; wants world well supplied.

Challenges that 130M barrels is only ~1.5 days of global supply.

Brian

Treasury Secretary

Reframes: 20M bpd from Gulf; 1.5M is Iranian oil; Saudis/UAE diverted production; SPR release; deficit is 10-14M barrels.

Asks for Treasury's real estimate of global oil shortage.

Brian

Treasury Secretary

Deficit is 10-14M barrels before ships come out of straits; details Russian oil (9-12 days supply), Iranian oil (140M barrels), Saudi stored supplies, global SPR (400M barrels).

Asks if waiver on Russian oil could be extended beyond 30 days, acknowledging optics of easing sanctions on Putin.

Brian

Treasury Secretary

Compares oil at $150 (Putin gets 70%) vs. $95-100; argues Putin's coffers roughly unchanged; waiver is short-term window for oil on water.