Recession risk depends on war longevity and infrastructure destruction in the Middle East; ceasefire could enable faster recovery but profound uncertainty remains.

Even if war ends tomorrow, recovery would take time due to infrastructure damage and slow-moving tankers; impact is already baked in.

Uses example of 40-day tanker journey to illustrate supply chain inertia.

Markets are optimistic due to high concentration of financial assets in the US, which is doing well as an oil exporter.

This is not the story for the rest of the world where there is already significant pain.

Markets are geared by positive events in the largest economy (US high productivity growth, tech optimism).

Argues for more caution because supply chain disruptions are already significant and worsen daily.

Links delayed tanker departures to delayed global economic rebound.

Short-term inflation expectations have moved up slightly (IMF projection 3.8% to 4.2%), but long-term expectations remain well anchored.

Central banks with credibility should take a wait-and-see attitude, signaling preparedness but not rushing.

Worries that due to 2022 experience, central banks might move faster, which could dangerously suffocate growth.

We are in a more shock-prone world; fiscal authorities must build buffers, monetary policy must calibrate carefully, and countries need agility.

Praises UK's mature policy approach: careful spending, clear BoE communication, targeted/temporary fiscal response within boundaries, and focus on pro-growth policies.

Contrasts UK with other countries rushing to spend money they don't have.

Decades of evidence show independent central banks are an economic asset; emerging market central banks have outperformed peers by building independence and data-dependent policymaking.

Good market functioning is helpful to avoid panic; financial conditions have tightened somewhat, EM currencies have depreciated somewhat, but not dramatically.

If the war trajectory leads to economic restart, we are in a good place; prolonged periods would make optimism hard to sustain.

Venezuela lacks majority recognition but IMF is prepared for junior technical engagement; economy has shrunk to one-third, faces hyperinflation risk, and has 8 million refugees.

Notes regional neighbors (Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, Chile) want Venezuela engaged, not a failed state.