Payrolls are overstated by residual seasonality—about 60K per month. Net job growth is close to zero. Gains are concentrated in healthcare, education, and leisure/hospitality.
Andrew Hollenhorst
Firms are reluctant to hire due to AI uncertainty and the macro economy. CEOs are asking: should I replace roles now or wait?
Andrew Hollenhorst
Inflation is on a disinflationary trend. Shelter inflation is decelerating; tariff effects are fading. Core goods price inflation should decelerate.
Andrew Hollenhorst
If core inflation is running around 2.5%, that's basically at the Fed's target. They can reduce policy rates from a slightly restrictive stance.
Andrew Hollenhorst
Disinflation is from cyclical softening, not AI. Job openings are down, employment cost index is slowing—reassuring for the Fed on services inflation.
This was no victory lap—you failed by 5K. How much are you focusing on the breadth of job gains as a fragility indicator?
Lisa Abramowicz
Does it feel like mid-February? It feels like the middle of the year. Are economists exhausted?