Heading into 2026, outlook centered on three themes: global fragmentation, structurally higher inflation, AI proliferation. These themes are accelerating and markets are pricing all three at once.

Thesis hasn't changed but urgency has. Challenges exist, stress-testing base case. Assumes de-escalation in oil markets; even if oil moves to $80/barrel avg next 3-6 months, still benign for growth/inflation and constructive for risk assets.

Compelling entry point in fixed income specifically on shorter end (1-5 years). Market may have gone too far in initial repricing; long-term inflation expectations still anchored. Bond markets underestimating some factors.

Investors rebuilding cash, selling stocks/bonds/gold. Rates surged (especially front end) on inflation risk—opportunity to lock in elevated yield.

Broadly, degree of worry; longer conflict duration increases economic/market impact. Clients hesitant on how to participate. Focus on portfolio resilience, managing volatility, taking advantage of swings.

Could range from bullish clients dipping into high-conviction sectors (tech, industrials, financials) that pulled back, to strategies playing volatility (structured notes, hedge funds).

Gold not a point-in-time hedge; it's a diversifier for bigger structural risks (higher deficits, fragmentation). Those factors accelerating. Have conviction; nudged base case from >$6000 to high $5000s, still 20% upside.

Pullback over 15% due to stronger dollar, higher rates, profit-taking. Important to keep long-term role in mind.