To understand yield direction, look at nominal GDP (real growth + inflation). Bond market fears more inflation than growth slowdown, causing nominal growth to rise.

This explains why yields are going up and why expected rate cuts have disappeared.

Before the war, market priced in two rate cuts; now they're gone, with small chances of rate hikes by year-end.

Shift reflects concern about inflation outweighing economic slowdown.

The economy has shown resilience, absorbing shocks, which means additional stimulus primarily adds inflation rather than boosting real growth.

This supports the view that nominal GDP and thus yields are likely to continue rising.