Asking about December Fed rate cut probability given market pricing shift from 30% to 90% odds
Vonnie Quinn
Jordan Rochester
High conviction for December Fed cut despite hawkish narrative, citing labor market weakness as overriding inflation concerns
Jordan Rochester
Expects strong growth in Q1/Q2 2025 due to fiscal stimulus globally, but labor market weakening despite 3% rates
Jordan Rochester
Markets typically bounce off 3% terminal rate, but current labor weakness could push toward 2.75-2.50%
Jordan Rochester
UK budget needs fiscal headroom of £15-20bn to avoid gilt sell-off and return to markets in six months