Market reaction suggests Fed statement was less hawkish than expected.
Host
Kelsey Barrow
Market reaction reflects pre-positioning for more hawkish outcome; Fed committee remains coordinated on moving policy to neutral, though neutral rate range is wide.
Fed remains data-dependent; views Stephen Miron's dissent as effectively only two dissents.
Host
Kelsey Barrow
Fed data-dependent; risk/reward for January rate cut interesting with only 25% probability priced.
Kelsey Barrow
If unemployment rises above Fed's 4.5% projection, they have space to cut rates further.
Questions why 10-year yields have risen despite Fed cutting rates and oil prices falling.
Host
Kelsey Barrow
Year-to-date Treasury yields are lower; 10-year has been range-bound between 4-4.25% for three months.
Notes Fed has cut 175bps while 10-year yields remain stuck.
Host
Kelsey Barrow
Inflation expectations (linked to oil) have come down, but sticky real yields reflect market testing higher structural growth story.