Iran feeling more vulnerable in early 2026, backed into corner making them dangerous unlike in 2025

Oil prices sustainably rose this time, didn't last time - that's something to watch

Supreme Court decision on tariffs could shake up bond market and thus equity market - look for that at end of February

Expect more tariff relief - from 14.2% overall tariff level to closer to 10% by end of year, helpful form of fiscal stimulus

Big China bank deal this year may include currency component, putting more downward pressure on dollar and CNY