Labor report doesn't move the needle much. November jobs close to expectations. Another payroll report before January meeting will make prior data less important. Strong retail sales control group and high yearly wage growth (3.5%) support consumption via real incomes and wealth effect.

Long-end yields are rising (replay of last year's cutting cycle). Bond market message: Fed controls short end, but long end reacts to better growth, sticky inflation, and demand for capital, pushing up term premium. This is a current reality, not just a risk.

Inflation is high and persistent but coming down. Tariff-related components drive underlying stickiness. Key unknown is if tariff inflation is a one-off or a process; consensus leans one-off. For inflationary process, look to wages, which are also coming down.