Options traders are pricing in a 1% move on the S&P tomorrow, which seems like complacency given muted markets.
Frank
Tony Zhang
The current ~100 bps implied move is actually above average compared to the last 4-5 FOMC announcements. Markets see more angst due to a record number of dissenting Fed governors and the bond market pricing only a 20-30% chance of a cut before June 2026.
How do dissenting votes impact where people put money in options, beyond the VIX play, like in MAG7 tech?
Frank
Tony Zhang
The dissenting votes will be seen through the dot plot and will likely affect the rest of the market more than MAG7. Small caps are making intraday highs and playing catch-up, while MAG7 lags.
What options action are you seeing in Oracle ahead of earnings, given it's viewed as an OpenAI proxy?
Frank
Tony Zhang
The stock has pulled back substantially. Investors are betting on an upside move if Oracle beats earnings, with a large call spread trade (Dec 26th weekly 225/240) laying out ~$1M to make $1.8M.