My framework is that the administration will do anything to shore up support for the midterms, focusing on the affordability argument. They will pull all policy levers to ensure the worst-case scenario doesn't happen.

I would think so. The Fed has the hubris to think they can rein inflation in later. The great concern is that elevated oil prices will build higher inflation expectations, meaning higher interest rates, which compounds problems in private credit.

Absolutely, this could easily devolve into a full-blown credit crisis. The corporate sector is massively more levered than in 2007, with worse balance sheet quality. The BBB segment is now 55% of investment grade, up from under 30%.

Yes, absolutely. This was the most predictable, least predicted crisis. They were trying to offload risk onto the next patsy, including retail investors via ETFs.

My sense is that G7 central banks trying to stand firm will capitulate before long. The US's problems with pensions and toxic assets are not unique. I'm not optimistic any major central bank will pursue monetary integrity.

I think 6000 by year-end is a no-brainer, and we move substantially higher from there. We consolidated at 5000 and are now setting up a base. It's a great opportunity to buy.

Absolutely. One wonders if policymakers have a backup plan that involves gold should things unravel.

Corporate profits. Don't be duped by S&P earnings inflated by buybacks. Broader corporate profits are growing much slower. Also watch consumer sentiment as a leading indicator.

I've been watching the impact on interest rates in Treasuries and corporates. When oil goes up this fast, we've always had a recession. The bond market isn't getting enough attention.