Introduces Goldman's co-head of Global Commodities Research Don Struyven, noting their previous $4,900 gold target was reached quickly.
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Don Struyven
The key upside risk to our structurally bullish gold call has been realized: diversification broadening from central banks to private investors. We continue to look for significant additional upside.
Notes the central thesis behind gold gains is central banks hedging against the dollar and inflation.
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Highlights private/retail investor jump into gold is something being watched, citing commodity analyst Carly Garner's warning that there's 'no reasonable fundamental justification' and calling it a 'meme trade'.
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Notes silver and platinum have more industrial use, but gold at $4,981 is its best week since March 2020.
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Asks Don Struyven: For how long do private retail investors drive the price higher?
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Don Struyven
Our $5,400 forecast assumes NO additional private sector diversification. It's driven by central banks continuing to buy more for longer and Fed cuts. If private sector diversification continues, there would be upside to our forecast.
Asks if Don agrees gold has become a 'meme trade'.
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Don Struyven
The rally has gone faster than expected. Silver outlook is particularly uncertain due to lack of central bank demand anchor and low liquidity. For gold, the structural trend of higher central bank demand combined with stable supply means the path from here is higher.