Market still optimistic a deal can be done over next couple weeks. Friday's tweets created equity optimism and an aggressive oil selloff after close.

Over weekend: Iran attempted to strike tankers, US seized Iranian ship. This escalation exceeds what many priced in.

Focus on physical markets: Australia has 10-13 days diesel left; Europe could run out of jet fuel in 2 weeks; East Asia has supply constraints.

Futures volatile but spot market elevated. Shortages will have meaningful economic and social impact worldwide.

That's the hope. Market looks 6-9 months out. Still optimistic a deal can be done.

Chatter about $20B Iranian funds release faced pushback. US extended Russia sanctions relief possibly at European request. US sending delegation but Iran reportedly doesn't want to talk.

If escalation occurs, could see pullback. Equity rally has seen 10% pullbacks before making new highs.

Retesting 7000 level or key moving averages (100-day, 20-day) would be normal and healthy. Ceasefire resolution remains uphill battle; futures market underpricing energy risk.

SandDest joining Nasdaq 100, replacing Atlassian. Beneficial due to passive fund buying.

Some front-running already occurred. Passive funds need to purchase to match benchmark weights. Stock up 2500% in a year.

Rotation trade into oversold sectors with cheap multiples like Microsoft (cheapest since COVID).

Palantir caught bid but faded Friday. This week critical for software to break out. Big Mag 7 earnings next week will be driver. Bitcoin could also benefit. This is a valuation play.

Upside call flow at 7150, downside at 7000. VIX at 19.5 implies 1.2% move.

Expect shift to defensive positioning early, play by ear as news hits. Look for rebound in materials/commodity names like Dow Chemical, CF Industries that sold off Friday.