States that the view that AI names will continue to lead is now a consensus. Bull markets are characterized by vigorous capital markets activity, which is still growing as a percent of market cap and historically continues to be led by the themes that started the rally.

The broader NASDAQ has gone sideways for 4 months. The key will be how AI names respond to earnings season. High beat rates are expected, but near-term VIX levels and very high earnings expectations are a slight concern. High single-digit full-year growth should be sufficient to drive these names. Sustained appetite for CapEx, evidenced by hyperscalers acquiring power capacity, supports the runway into 2026.

Primary view is that the Fed may be overstimulative. Sees a 30% chance of a bubble (defined as S&P 500 at 9000). Near-term, risk is underpriced given geopolitical backdrop. Longer-term, the biggest concern is a move higher in long-term rates, which would be punitive, but this requires 10-year yields reaching 4.50% or 4.75%, which he views as still far off.