The US has not achieved its strategic goals in Iran: Iran still has enriched uranium, the Strait of Hormuz is closed, and there hasn't been regime change.
Iran has shown remarkable tenacity despite being pulverized and having its leadership decapitated.
Roger Altman
The blockade could work but is risky and will require a lot of patience, potentially months.
It's unrealistic to expect Iran to fold quickly just because it's deprived of oil revenue, given their tenacity so far.
Roger Altman
The mild market reaction reflects an expectation that the fighting is over, but Iran could still attack naval vessels or Gulf neighbors.
Roger Altman
If the blockade takes months to work, the market forecast that oil prices will move back down to the 70-80 range by year-end will not be true.
This would have impacts on the US economy, consumer, and financial markets.
The only hope for the administration is that the blockade is so severe on Iran that they come to the table quickly, before US consumers feel the impact.
Kelly Evans
Roger Altman
The odds Iran comes to the table quickly are really low unless China forces its hand.
China has tremendous influence on Iran as its biggest customer and weighed in heavily to get the ceasefire.
Roger Altman
If the perception of a short war proves wrong because the blockade takes time, it will weigh on markets. The question is whether President Trump has the patience.
That's the only way to get real change in Iran and rationalize the original decision to go in.