• Asks if recent geopolitical events change Bitcoin's identity as a safe haven, given it didn't rally during Middle East tensions.
    Tim
  • Dan Morehead
    Bitcoin is one of the only multi-trillion dollar markets that trades 24/7, so during a geopolitical event on a Sunday at 2am, it's the only thing you can sell. This creates short-term correlation with the S&P 500, but over longer periods it has low correlation with risk assets and has been appreciating for 15 years.
  • Asks if Bitcoin's role changes in a future where equities are tokenized and also trade 24/7.
    Tim
  • Dan Morehead
    Agrees Bitcoin's role will change. Once all equities are on the blockchain, people won't have to sell Bitcoin during off-hours crises; they can sell US stocks instead.
  • Notes crypto looks cheap relative to AI. Asks what the market is missing.
    Isabelle
  • Dan Morehead
    AI is trading about 20% above its four-year log trend. Bitcoin is the polar opposite, trading 50% below its long-term trend. For investors who can't stomach AI valuations, blockchain is a good proxy. AI agents have to use blockchain, increasing demand for blockchain assets.
  • Asks how AI using crypto would work in practice.
    Isabelle
  • Dan Morehead
    AI agents aren't going to get normal bank accounts and transact in paper money. They have to use electronic money. As they become more impactful, they have to use blockchain assets.
  • Asks if agents will act in a fiduciary capacity on our behalf.
    Tim
  • Dan Morehead
    It's already happening. AI agents are doing commerce. They have to use crypto because they won't be backed by entities that can get bank accounts.
  • Asks what gives him conviction to deploy capital despite the current rout.
    Isabelle
  • Dan Morehead
    We've been through four massive cycles. This downturn is shallower than previous ones. This is the best time to put money to work in venture companies and protocols.
  • Asks for his call on a level or bottom for Bitcoin.
    Tim
  • Dan Morehead
    Previous big cycles averaged about 380 days. The market could go down until the end of the year. Previous cycles were deeper, so there might be another 10% or maybe 20% downside. However, buying something 50% below its trend stacks the odds in your favor. Anyone who has owned Bitcoin for four years has always made money.
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