The new tariff regime introduces huge complexity and uncertainty. It invalidates previous foreign policy work on negotiated deals. The journey until the 150-day expiry could lead to volatility and headline risk.

The magnitude of risk-on is much less than in 2025. We are focused, with an overweight only in Asia ex-Japan equities. We advocate for safe havens, which at the moment you can really only see in gold. We also advocate for a very well-diversified equity portfolio across geography, sector, and style to make it more robust against expected bouts of volatility.

The correlation between US Treasuries and US equities is fluid, no longer clearly negative. Our bigger concern is the direction of the US dollar, which we think will continue to trend lower. Holding US assets does not have that safe haven status it used to have.

It depends on your asset allocation. We overweight Asia Pacific and correspondingly underweight something else (like fixed income). The region has strong tailwinds.