Notes persistent inverse correlation between Brent oil and S&P. Traders betting on asymmetry: if conflict drags on, continued grinding higher in oil prices; downside is more swift if resolution occurs. Market still at mercy of oil/Strait of Hormuz conditions.

Short-term traders still betting on de-escalation. Day-to-day market moves driven by positioning, not narrative/fundamentals. Cites gold's parabolic move then selling as example of traders pressing positions.

Longer conflict means more sustainable high oil prices and significant ripple effects (fertilizer, food costs). Unique military crisis due to Strait of Hormuz choke point. Economic/inflation/earnings impacts not yet in numbers but will materialize.

Without resolution, market dislocations could last beyond short-term inverse relationship to oil.