Asks what technical levels indicate market sentiment about duration of Middle East conflict, given Dow down 1200 points.
Sam
Nathan Peterson
Conflict duration is key question for oil price sustainability. Hopes for short-lived conflict with quick resolution.
Nathan Peterson
Technically bearish: S&P 500 and Dow gapped below 100-day SMA; Russell 2000 below 50-day SMA. Equal-weight S&P down more than cap-weighted suggests broad risk-off selling.
Notes surprising resilience yesterday vs. today's sell-off; asks what he's paying most attention to, citing unusual Treasury move (yields higher despite safe-haven bid) due to oil price inflation implications.
Sam
Nathan Peterson
Gold/silver different this cycle due to prior rally; dollar rebounding from recent weakness; Treasury yields higher on inflation concerns but less critical factor now given strong earnings/GDP forecasts.
Highlights Chinese ADRs (Kweb) as most oversold on record (14-day RSI 16), down 14 of last 15 days; asks what stands out technically.
Sam
Nathan Peterson
Don't catch falling knife; wait for reversal patterns like positive RSI divergence, bullish engulfing candles, morning stars before considering entry.