Earnings season will indicate if broadening out of earnings growth from mega tech materializes; fiscal impulse is consensual but not yet reflected in positioning with no signs of exuberance.

In US, fiscal impulse will be positive from tax rebates; in Europe (excluding UK/France) and Asia (Australia/NZ) fiscal impulse also positive. Good setup to add cyclical laggards, started in Dec with European basic resources and oil.

US earnings season (Q4) will confirm broadening; fiscal impulse positive in H1; consumer confidence still muted; US in wait-and-see mode. Clearer green shoots in Europe with fiscal impulse on Germany and ripple effect.

Rotation view reflected in interest rate differentials; dollar weakening on risk-on; divergence supportive for high-beta FX vs dollar; positioning on dollar already short, need careful cherry-picking. Long AUD vs USD and SEK vs EUR.

Last year was multiple expansion; this year needs earnings delivery, especially if fiscal impulse boosts consumer demand. Need cherry-picking exposure: China tech (different route from US, diversifies AI theme) and exporting-led stocks benefiting from industrial policies.

US took cloud-based AI infrastructure path; China focused on open source, AI application, edge AI. Certainty of earnings key for AI thematic this year; focus on sectors/countries where earnings materialization faster: hardware, Korean equities, China tech make more sense than hyperscalers with uncertain earnings path.

Two years ago overweight US due to exceptionalism; now US exceptionalism faded, want to diversify because policy risk higher. Don't put eggs in same basket; reflationary story and global poles opportunity to add more out of US; Europe and Asia where export cycle alive are good propositions.