Current oil price move is a classic short squeeze in US contracts - WTI caught up to Brent, eliminating typical $5 discount. This is 'get me out' behavior ahead of weekend risk.
Asking if $100 oil is possible within the month or still a tail risk scenario.
Host
Mike McGlone
Every bit crude oil goes up enhances potential for recession. When gasoline hit $4/gallon in 2008, that signaled recession.
Asking if war premium will come out dollar-for-dollar when conflict ends or leave residual higher prices.
Host
Mike McGlone
Current situation will accelerate bear market. Natural gas example: up 100% in January, now down 15%.
Asking if smart traders are shorting oil here.
Host
Mike McGlone
Hard to short front contract, maybe short further out. US producers will lock in profits at higher prices and bring more supply.