• Russ Brownback
    There's a relief trade running through markets today, refocusing on transcendent influences that support credit quality, margins, and earnings growth.
    Geopolitical shocks like the Middle East cause short-run safe-haven flows but don't derail these long-term, powerful influences that have driven markets through uncertainty shocks over the last three years.
  • Asks if it's too early to call relief, given no definitive agreement to end the war or restore oil flow.
    Katie
  • Russ Brownback
    Agrees there's tremendous uncertainty, but under plausible scenarios, the disruption isn't big enough to derail structural influences like the capex supercycle and productivity boom.
  • Asks about IMF warning on Treasury supply compressing safety premium vs. corporates.
    Katie
  • Russ Brownback
    Corporate spreads are tight due to strong technicals (low net issuance) and historically good credit quality. We have to get used to tight credit spreads.
    The mitigating factor is that all-in yields are near multi-decade highs. We can build diversified, high-quality fixed income portfolios yielding 6-6.5%, which is an unbelievable environment.
  • Clarifies: the investment thesis is the all-in yield, not spread compression, and tight spreads will be the reality.
    Katie
  • Russ Brownback
    That's right. We don't see a big directional interest rate trade. The regime is an income regime, not a duration regime.
    The right approach is to use a broad toolkit to harvest global corporate credit and secure assets, building them along high nominal risk-free rates.
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