• Tech becoming larger slice of bond sales with analysts expecting more hyperscaler supply as capex surges. At what point worried about concentration risk?
    Lizzy
  • Alexandra Ivanova
    100-year bond in UK sterling market one of biggest in history. Demand so strong, books covered almost 10 times. Bond traded okay, didn't expect rally that quickly. Amount of supply coming into investment grade market poses question about what spreads over gilts/treasuries need to be paid properly.
  • Story about rapidly growing pool of passive funds and potential disruption. Concerned?
    Lizzy
  • Alexandra Ivanova
    Passive will look at index. If index inclusion, broader support for these issuers. Given yields - 100-year bond over 6% in sterling historically high. Nobody knows if Google there in 100 years. Very risky exposed to underlying gilt volatility.
  • Other sectors where credit fundamentals not holding up well?
    Lizzy
  • Alexandra Ivanova
    Chemicals in doldrums couple years. Credit market starting to price AI losers in software sector underperforming recently. Investors selling first, asking questions later. Some companies credit metrics don't look bad but business model questionable. Could be conglomerate where some parts benefit from AI but easy to sell first. Technicals that have been strong starting to turn.
  • JP Morgan strategists recommending selling 2-year treasuries as tactical trade because data makes harder for Fed to cut rates. Agree?
    Lizzy
  • Alexandra Ivanova
    Agree. Worry about market pricing perfection in rate cut expectations. New Fed chair Trump appointee. Reacting to data day-to-day. Benign CPI positive for risk markets. If surprise upside, investors question if too benign expecting too many cuts. Some strategists calling for four cuts, don't see unless actual recession.
  • January CPI print that could put June cut back on table?
    Lizzy
  • Alexandra Ivanova
    If CPI surprises downside. Most downside surprises from structural housing part of CPI data. More cyclical month-to-month data might surprise upside. Think about resilient economies, demand side of AI expansion, cyclical upward trend in industrials, consumer holding up. Still waiting for checks in mail/rebates coming side of 2026. Risks maybe demand stronger, underlying inflation stickier.
  • UK gilts - any part of curve safe heading to May elections?
    Lizzy
  • Alexandra Ivanova
    Front end looks okay. Bank of England has room to cut, soft signaled March potentially cuts. Long end quite volatile. For diversification maybe still invest but careful and active. Used opportunity where gilts rallied into year end and outperformed - good opportunity rotate out. Once sell off, at some point good levels get back in.
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