Oil market not moving on yet due to fragile ceasefire and ongoing talks, with market watching Strait of Hormuz developments closely.

Notes slight lull in bombardment, cautious ceasefire, achievement of getting parties to talk, and market confusion over US blockade logistics. Highlights critical importance of Strait of Hormuz opening without restrictions.

Disconnect between physical market (panic) and financial market (cautious optimism), with strategic reserves being best source for immediate barrels.

Explains dated Brent vs financial market disconnect, mentions Trump headline about UK oil production, notes confusion about quick supply sources, and states higher prices lead to gradual production increases outside Gulf.