Asks Siegel about his correct inflation call on Friday and expectations for the Fed this week.
speaker1
Jeremy Siegel
Expects no Fed action this week or until Kevin Warsh takes over in June, barring a major job market deterioration. Argues current situation is 100% different from COVID because there's no massive fiscal stimulus or money supply expansion now.
Asks if the market's buoyancy despite geopolitical volatility reflects composure or complacency, and if risks are being priced correctly.
speaker1
Jeremy Siegel
Believes markets are pricing the risk correctly. Notes the US is energy self-sufficient, a stronger dollar cushions import inflation, and the country is in a much better position than during past oil shocks.
Asks if Siegel is not concerned about inflation.
speaker1
Jeremy Siegel
Not concerned. Believes once you look through the oil situation, major inflation factors like shelter are flat, providing a tailwind for lower inflation over the next 1-1.5 years.
Asks where the underlying economy is landing given revisions and the friction from higher energy costs muting expected tax refund spending.
speaker4
Jeremy Siegel
Acknowledges a market pullback (around 5% for S&P) as an adjustment, but notes major banks have only trimmed GDP forecasts slightly. Points to oil futures suggesting prices will fall back to the $60s by fall.
Asks about the potential for Powell to remain Chair longer due to legal challenges and how that could affect rates.
speaker1
Jeremy Siegel
Believes it is 100% that Warsh will take over in June, as Powell would not stay on if demoted from Chair to a regular FOMC member.