Oil has increased but the key question is whether it stays up or comes back down, and whether this has policy implications.
Host
Some suggest Fed officials might be conditioned by 2021-2022 post-pandemic experience with inflation spike and energy shock from Russia.
Host
Stephen Miran
Current situation is different from 2022 - focusing on oil shock now is 'fighting the last war'.
Stephen Miran
2022 was unique because monetary policy was extremely expansionary, fiscal policy injected trillions, and the economy was recovering from COVID.
Stephen Miran
Current environment is different: no fiscal policy slamming on demand, supply is moving out aggressively, and monetary policy is still modestly restrictive.