Asks if the situation has changed, making high oil prices more structural.
Heidi Stroud
Neil Beveridge
Our view on oil hasn't changed for this year. We think still $80 a barrel is a reasonable number. Our view is still this is going to be a finite duration conflict.
Asks if the minimal impact of reserve releases is surprising.
Heidi Stroud
Neil Beveridge
It's not surprising. SPR releases provide confidence but don't fundamentally result in a sustained pullback. The flow rate from the SPR is nothing compared to the 20 million barrels of disruption from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Asks how quickly easing might come and how quickly infrastructure can come back online.
Avril
Neil Beveridge
How quickly we see the Strait of Hormuz reopen depends on when we see an end to the war. Markets will force Trump's hand; the longer the conflict goes and the higher prices go, the more pressure on the US to find a solution.
Asks about potential for more US shale drilling.
Heidi Stroud
Neil Beveridge
In the short term, it's going to have no impact at all. By the time you drill a well and bring it online, you're talking three to six months. Nothing will happen in a matter of weeks to offset the 20 million barrels disrupted.