A blockade is technically an act of war. Iran is likely to respond by ending the ceasefire and targeting ships in the Strait of Hormuz and energy infrastructure.

This means for the broader conflict, things remain very uncertain. This seems an attempt by Trump to escalate to de-escalate.

Tehran framed it as unlikely to solve all major issues in one round. Washington said talks collapsed because Tehran wasn't willing to negotiate on its future nuclear program, specifically the level of enrichment on Iranian soil.

We are not quite at square one, but set back quite a bit. Iran has been attacked while negotiating for the third time under Trump, which will heighten their reluctance to negotiate.

The US cannot backfill the 20 million barrel per day shortage from the Strait closure. The US can export maybe a quarter of that, largely to existing customers, so major global shortfalls remain.

The US has limited options for forcibly reopening Hormuz. The attempted blockade involves a lot of risk and doesn't guarantee the strait reopens to commercial traffic. A return to normal is unlikely unless the US goes back to the negotiating table.