Introduces the geopolitical shock: Middle East strikes halt Hormuz traffic, oil surges fastest in 4 years, gold tops $5,400. Asks if this is a temporary spike or something more destabilizing.
Jeremy Saffron
James Thorne
Calls it a temporary spike for long-term investors (12-14 month view). Expects success in Middle East, a peace dividend, and calm. Notes gold only up a couple percent, oil only 6%, suggesting the market reaction is muted. Warns the safety trade in gold/silver is crowded versus a debasement trade.
James Thorne
Gold target is $10,000 by end of decade, but the big run has happened; gold has been repriced. Now it needs to digest.
Asks where capital goes if defensive trade is crowded, noting Bitcoin near $70k.
Jeremy Saffron
James Thorne
Advocates rotating back to Bitcoin, Ethereum, and technology/AI trade. Says these have been 'absolutely hammered' and there's too much negative emotion in that trade. Recommends trimming some energy, gold, silver, and commodities to rotate capital.
Asks if the oil shock (WTI up, diesel futures up) reignites inflation and kills Fed cut hopes.
Jeremy Saffron
James Thorne
Firmly says 'No, not at all.' Calls it a short-term blip. Smart operators should hedge at these prices. Markets will look past it.
Asks for outlook on Bitcoin and gold given the geopolitical safety trade.
Jeremy Saffron
James Thorne
Bitcoin now is like gold 8 months ago—a beach ball under water. Short-term price appreciation will be bigger in Bitcoin. Gold and silver need to grind sideways and grow into valuation. Big money has been made in gold/silver; Bitcoin target is $200k-$250k.