Reports that Strait of Hormuz is now open based on Iranian foreign minister's statement linking it to Lebanon ceasefire.
David Gura
Patrick Sykes
My first thought was the oil price. Brent crude plunged by as much as 10% to $88 a barrel on optimism oil will reach global markets again.
Patrick Sykes
My second thought: Iran is still referring to its approved route. Ships must travel on a specific route determined by Iran, closer to its shore.
This is not a return to pre-war status quo. Iran is still setting terms of entry and exit.
President Trump sees it differently - celebrating the news, saying strait is completely open and ready for business.
David Gura
Patrick Sykes
Even as ships enter, there's still a lot of uncertainty. We've lost one of two parallel blockades.
Iran now lets other ships including American ones through, but US still intends to interdict sanctioned Iranian ships.
Would captains feel comfortable taking ships through first?
David Gura
Patrick Sykes
You'd feel more assured than yesterday but not fully reassured. Insurance is the key element - owners need to see what insurers make of it.
Industry associations say they still need to see exactly how it would work.
How did this reopening come to be?
David Gura
Patrick Sykes
I see it in light of expected resumption of talks between Iran and US this weekend. From Iran this is a gesture of goodwill to keep negotiations on track.
Ceasefire expires early next week. Market reaction is positive but substantively may not change much due to insurance and lack of clarity.
Why has Lebanon been such a sticking point?
David Gura
Patrick Sykes
Iran links its ceasefire with US to implementation of Israel's ceasefire with Lebanon/Hezbollah. Iran wants lasting conclusion to conflict in whole region, not just at home.
Iran feels burned by holding negotiations multiple times only for them to collapse into conflict.
What needs to happen for ceasefire to hold longer?
David Gura
Patrick Sykes
We need a deal as soon as this weekend. Sides have talked about freeze on Iran's uranium enrichment. Less clarity on what happens to Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium.
If US can negotiate way to extract or neutralize that stockpile, it could claim major win.
What does oil price plunge and market reaction say about how investors view this conflict?
David Gura
Patrick Sykes
Traders are digesting this news with voracious appetite. President's tweets have power to push markets because appetite is great and he is President of United States.
Markets have to take him at his word because those words send signals to markets in real time.
What about mines in the strait? How real is that danger?
David Gura
Patrick Sykes
Very little clarity. Iran has been deliberately ambiguous about whether it mined the strait. New route was established to protect shipping from mines - hints at danger without claiming responsibility.
Clearing mines will be important and dangers could outlive the hot conflict.
What have we learned about Hormuz as a weapon now that Iran has used it?
David Gura
Patrick Sykes
Iran has crossed the Rubicon - threats will be taken more seriously. This gives Iran leverage it never got with nuclear debate - ability to strangle global economy.
Iran won't easily give up the threat or control it has accrued.
What do you make of US reaction to Iran's recognition of this power?
David Gura
Patrick Sykes
Sounds like building material for claim of victory. Iranians have been less vocal. Original tweet makes clear this is conditional - as long as ceasefire lasts.
Signaling from Iran is much more cautious than Trump's statements about never closing it again.