Markets haven't done much; ruling was anticipated (Polymarket had 75% chance). Bigger deficit, more Treasury supply, higher yield makes sense. Key point: don't know administration response yet.

Both need to behave well. Fed in fairly good spot, comfortable. Minutes mildly hawkish. Leadership transition; Fed not motivated in near term. Pricing for March meeting negligible. Fed on hold for couple meetings, wants to wait and watch. Today's announcement doesn't motivate Fed additionally.

Rate hike this year very low probability (<5%). Next year, back half of 2027, if inflation ratchets up or gets stuck, Fed could think about hikes. Warsh transition an issue; hiking soon would be shocking. If data sustains strength for 6-12 months, maybe hike late next year.

Volatility down because economic data tame, range of outcomes narrow (will Fed go once more or is it done?). Could stay low another 12-18 months, like pre-GFC period.