We didn't see as much contagion as you would have thought. Food at home actually declined. Airline fares were up less than 3%, vs. +5-6% recently. We are seeing some modest spillover, but not as dramatic as expected.

We all knew gasoline would be higher; it was easy to forecast. The fact it wasn't worse is one reason the report was a bit softer than the market had priced for.

The peak of Iran-related volatility might be behind us. The next marginal impulse could be growth risk, labor market risk, or tariff dynamics. Markets go through cyclical narrative-based waves.

Markets priced for a big energy impulse and then pretty modest core inflation thereafter. From end of Q2 through the rest of the year, markets are priced for 15-25 bps per month on core, a pretty sanguine path.

Medium-term expectations (5y5y) are at 2.4%, bang on target. That's actually risen recently, likely because the ceasefire reduced fears of a demand-destruction recession.

Absolutely. The relationship between CPI food and fertilizer is a 6-8 month lag. The Iran price-related distortion isn't a one-off; we'll talk about the lingering effects for months.

Airline fares are another example; we expect upward pressure, maybe visible in April/May data. It lingers like tariffs did.