Questions whether US-Iran blockade is a game of chicken the US can't win, given Iran's existential stakes and willingness to fight to the bitter end.
Host
Marc Champion
US blockade aims to force Iran back to negotiations, but Iran threatens to hit Gulf ally ports in response, creating mutual supply disruption.
Marc Champion
At some point oil price will go up because supply is shrinking, then becomes question of who can last longer.
Iran has had windfall from recent oil sales without discounts due to eased sanctions, giving them cushion for several weeks or more.
Marc Champion
Iran likely won't fold given their leadership has been looking for this showdown with US for decades.
Question is whether Iran is willing to endure more economic pain to inflict inflation and potential recessions on US and other countries.
Notes Iran's existential stakes differ from US position where they could back off, questioning if US can win using blockade tactic.
Host
Marc Champion
War only made sense if ending with regime change; otherwise trying to calibrate Iranian behavior by force is almost impossible.
Goal should be regime change to have different leadership that won't threaten neighbors, but this has failed so far.
Asks about significance of Viktor Orban election loss for region, Putin, and Trump.
Host
Marc Champion
Orban's loss is really big - opposition won with constitutional majority allowing them to undo his institutional changes.
Orban changed Hungary's fabric through constitutional changes over 16 years; reversal explains why allies are fleeing.