A wide disconnect exists between US and Iranian plans. Iran views this as an existential conflict and is not willing to make meaningful concessions. Negotiations are 'almost dead on arrival.'

The current situation mirrors failed pre-war negotiations. Iran feels the US pulled the rug out before and is now escalating militarily.

Iran's claim of sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz is a non-starter for the US and international community, ensuring continued uncertainty over shipping lanes.

The mere threat of closure has been enough to stop most shipping.

US military options (island seizures, special ops, bombing campaigns) are high-risk and won't be a decisive 'final blow.' The base case is higher intensity warfare followed by a long, low-intensity conflict.

Explicitly states: 'Markets should be preparing for protracted conflict.'