Asks if market fatigue or lack of conviction is settling in, especially for oil, despite the dramatic ultimatum.
Heidi Stroud-Watts
Garfield Reynolds
It's an increase in confusion, not lack of conviction. Trump went from 'winding down' to threatening bombing in 48 hours, with Iran issuing firm rhetoric.
Garfield Reynolds
WTI initially popped to $101.50 on the hardening rhetoric but came back down due to lack of headlines signaling immediate action.
Garfield Reynolds
Brent above $110 and WTI near $100 signal expectations for supply shocks to linger, a tough outlook for most assets except the USD.
Asks what to expect next: low volumes and lack of conviction?
Annabelle Droulers
Garfield Reynolds
Expect plenty of volatility. Crude implied volatility has calmed after extreme moves, suggesting stabilization around current high levels.
Garfield Reynolds
Traders now bet on small chances for Fed hikes this year, a huge shift, weighing on treasuries and bonds globally.
Garfield Reynolds
Dollar strength builds on its petrodollar role and interest rate realignment.
Garfield Reynolds
One Trump post or fresh conflict escalation could send oil climbing or falling, setting up large equity moves.