Asks about the Fed's path forward given hot PPI and surging oil.
Danny Burger
David Mericle
Expect three dissents for a 25bp cut today. Forecast first cut in September, second in December. Oil price spike sharpens FOMC divisions—pushes up inflation, pushes down growth.
Asks how hot PPI feeds into inflation forecast.
Matt Miller
David Mericle
Components relevant for PCE looked a little softer. Firmer Jan/Feb prints likely last of tariff pass-through. Higher oil will pass through to airfares, transportation services, adding a couple tenths to core.