The price move is a series of steps: Strait closure, inventory build-up, and now production cuts. We might see a little retrenchment when WTI opens in the US.

Several layers of protection: over-supplied market entering crisis, 300 million barrels of sanctioned crude in tankers, substantial government stocks in China. Plenty of inventory to draw down.

The energy market today is different from 10 years ago: nascent energy transition moderates demand growth, China has self-sufficiency policies, and we learned demand restraint during COVID.

Macroeconomic risks: concerns about economic activity slowing into recession, and significant inflation in importing countries. These haven't kicked in yet because we're in early days.