Asks what durably elevated oil prices mean for inflation and the US consumer.
Katie Greifeld
Nathan Sheets
Headline inflation could move up by half a percentage point to around 3% over next few months. Also a risk for core goods from tariffs and supply chain challenges.
Asks what that means for the Fed lowering rates.
Katie Greifeld
Nathan Sheets
Fed's playbook is to watch and wait to see if inflation or growth effects dominate. For the next meeting or two, it will be really hard for the Fed to cut.
Asks if the weak jobs report argued for more accommodative Fed.
Romaine Bostick
Nathan Sheets
It's a softer, not collapsing, labor market. In absence of higher oil, the Fed would have debated a cut; it would have been a real option.
Asks about Fed communication next week.
Romaine Bostick
Nathan Sheets
Powell must make clear the Fed is watching, waiting, and prepared to move. He might tip his hand a little toward needing a cut due to labor market concerns.
Asks how this sets up a potential Warsh-led Fed in May.
Katie Greifeld
Nathan Sheets
If the Fed doesn't cut in the next couple meetings due to oil, it opens the door for a Warsh-led Fed to cut later in the year, which wouldn't be seen as bad news.
Asks about modeling a fiscal response.
Romaine Bostick
Nathan Sheets
Hesitant to think about more fiscal tools given high deficits and debt. Doesn't think we're at the threshold yet unless oil hits $120 for months.
Asks about historical read-through of oil shocks to shoppers.
Katie Greifeld
Nathan Sheets
Higher oil price interacting with the K-shaped economy is very bad news for the lower part of the distribution.