Inflation risks have increased mostly driven by energy prices. If we have a prolonged increase, the risk is higher for longer inflation, increasing wage pressures and inflation expectations.

If indeed we are in the scenario of prolonged increase in energy prices, the ECB would be ready to step in and tighten its monetary policy.

The US economy is slowing down (Q4 GDP revised to 0.7%) while inflationary pressures remain. The Federal Reserve should remain prudent. We don't expect any move this week.

Our view is only one rate cut this year, and it depends on the war in Iran and the potential for upside inflation risk.