• It would be a lot easier to talk about the economy and what it looks like in the US if we were getting official government to add it. We know that Friday we were supposed to get that job support. Another job's report delayed. When you take a look at all the different sources that we have, alternative measures of data and you try to really string them all together. What is the state of the labor market right now?
    Matt
  • Katy
    I would say Squishy. Employment growth has been very soft, but obviously there's been a slow down in supply of labor through immigration. Enforcement is recently as July, the chair was saying the labor markets in a curious balance. In September, they say there's now a downside risk to employment, which is the rationale for the cuts. But I guess if I had to pick a term that would be squishy right now within complete data.
  • Yeah, and it's interesting when you lay that against what we're seeing when it comes to inflation. It seems like being closer to 3% than 2% perhaps. This current Fed has made their peace with that because you consider federal reserve chairman Jerome Powell saying that that December rate cut is not a lock. perhaps we're comfortable with inflation where it is, but maybe it's the labor market. We need to be a little bit more concerned about it.
    Matt
  • Katy
    Yeah, you know, for some time at Pimco, we've been talking about the two points something inflation target. And it sounds silly, but I think so long as the first digit and the inflation rate is two, I think there's some comfort level of the Fed that that's close enough. They can cut rates, look at other considerations. It's interesting, you point out to the meeting last week. He said that not once, but I think six or seven times. I lost count of how many times he said December's not a done deal or there's a range of views on the committee. So he got his message across Katie.
  • I wonder, um, first of all. I thought you were great on the Fed decides last week. that was a fantastic program. Bob Michael, JPMorgan was saying, He doesn't think that the Fed is... operating blind or in the fog because they have after all 12. different regional banks. They have hundreds of analysts and economists working for them on the phone all day long with business leaders and institutions. Is that the case? Do you think the Fed really does have a clear view of the economy? Then...
    Matt
  • Katy
    I think they have a good... They have as good as the use you can without the official data, but there is no doubt the official data. I think really anchors not only Fed, but private sector forecasting in particular the granular detail, but I will say Matt, you know, in my career now, over several decades, one of the big evolutions has been more of a focus on high frequency real-time data. We started doing that at the Treasury Department 20 years ago. So the Fed and many private sector firms are looking at very granular high frequency data. And that can really complement the official data, but you need both. And as the chair said last week, the longer this goes on. Then potentially the more of an issue it comes in terms of making policy decisions. You mentioned two handle on inflation.
  • when you look at CPI, it's unfortunately a three handle. So they're 50% above their stated target. It's just like a lot of percent, right?
    Matt
  • I wonder if really, um, central banks around the world are happy to let, especially those with uh, countries that have an absolute ton of debt and profit of it spending. Yeah. Our happy-to-let inflation run high because... that way we can deal with this problem that otherwise there's no solution to.
    Matt
  • Katy
    I wouldn't say that they're happy. I think of probably a term I prefers. They're opportunistic in the sense that they don't like inflation of four or five or six. They would love it too. During my time at the Fed inflation was rarely. really got up to two. Indeed, for the 10 years before the pandemic, it only hit 2% and 2 or 3 months. And so we've gone from a decade of stagnation, negative rates, to a decade for a variety of reasons in which inflation has been hot in many countries. Probably the best counter example right now is the Eurozone where inflation is now running at about 2%. So it is possible. But there is an inflation hangover in many parts of the world right now for sure.
  • And how do you go about fixing that? I mean, you think about the past several years, we've had rates certainly higher than where they have been over the past decade, especially coming out of a zurt, that sort of environment. It seems like... getting closer to 4.5% on Fed Funds wasn't enough to really nip inflation in the bud, bring it back to that 2% target. Is this just something that the economy is going to have to work itself through and over what time frame?
    Matt
  • Katy
    A year ago, our ol' now, I guess 14 months ago, when the Fed cut in September. inflation was running at around 2.5%. So it wasn't right on target, but it had down shifted. The unemployment rate had gone up by a point. And so I think the Fed can make a plausible case that they were on a glide path to that 2% target. Now, we're obviously further away now. What's happened since then, probably tariffs are pushing up inflation, although disinflation and other categories, gasoline prices are down. So I think it's a range of factors, but it raises a good point. The longer the length of time, the fat is away from that 2% target. You know, the more risk there is the public and financial market, say, maybe the targets really not 2%.
  • I want to ask finally about the... control. that Powell has over the Fed. And I don't know if it's fair to say that he's losing control because they were two dissent, right? They were on different sides. But Michael said that.
    Matt
  • Katy
    Well, do you think that that's the case? Isn't it maybe healthy to have a little bit of descent on the field? How was it during your time? So I think two things. First of all, J. Powell is not losing control of the committee. I think secondly, I think informed a healthy... exchange of views, which sometimes can result in dissent is really a feature, not a bug, I mean, in fairness. We've gotten lald over the last 30 years under Green span and largely under Bernanke and Yellan and Powell, where the sense had been fairly rare and fairly not particularly newsworthy. But it's a complicated economy. Folks will have a range of views and on balance, I think it's a healthy... especially given as Jay Pal said there is no easy choice right here. Inflations to darn high. We're worried about the labor market, so these are going to be judgment. calls and so I think the descent is really a feature not a bug. I don't think he has lost control.
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