• Asks Tom Lee to interpret the day's price action following a better-than-expected jobs report, which pushed yields up and reduced Fed cut expectations.
    Scott
  • Tom Lee
    States the macro is confusing due to an unclear new Fed chair policy stance and a jobs report that contradicts the narrative of AI destroying jobs. The focus shifts to Friday's CPI; a tame report would show cooling inflation, while strong jobs data relieves recession fears.
  • Notes the market has been 'frazzled,' citing Bespoke data showing the S&P rapidly cycling from overbought to oversold and back, and Goldman's comment on unprecedented noise and velocity.
    Scott
  • Tom Lee
    Agrees it's very confusing. Identifies two effects: 1) A smaller effect where AI has shifted from an earnings driver to a perceived wrecking ball for tech, causing investors to favor 'the bullets' (AI enablers) over 'the armies' (hyperscalers). 2) A bigger effect is gold's rise as a monolithic trade. Notes gold's market cap (~$40T ex-Mag7) now rivals the S&P, causing investors to question stocks as a store of value.
  • Describes a sequential 'AI shooting gallery' where disruption hits mega-caps, software, private credit, and financial data names, asking if this guessing game is the new norm.
    Scott
  • Tom Lee
    Acknowledges AI capabilities are improving rapidly and substituting jobs, which rattles markets. Takes a 'half full' view: this disruption is proof of productivity and leads to cost savings for software company clients, implying a long-term payoff.
  • Cites David Einhorn calling this 'the most expensive market' and asks Tom Lee to parse the valuation argument against strong earnings.
    Scott
  • Tom Lee
    Concedes Einhorn is correct on a relative basis, as markets get more expensive yearly. Argues this year is unique: earnings growth is accelerating, ISM is above 50, and the market concludes the new Fed is dovish. Points out the market survived multiple 'black swans' and still grew earnings, suggesting it deserves a higher P/E, just as gold is being re-rated.
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